Top NHL analyst gives Oilers crazy Stanley Cup odds, and warns of biggest weakness
Photo credit: Sergei Belski - USA Today Sports
Top NHL analytics figure Dom Luszczyszyn recently ranked each team's biggest strengths and weaknesses, and the Oilers fatal flaw was determined to be their average-at-best goaltending.
Earlier this season, Luszczyszyn gave the Oilers a shockingly good Stanley Cup chance of 18%. Their chances are now at 27%, but their goal crease is the weak link.
Oilers goaltending identified as fatal flaw by top NHL analyst
In a new piece for the Athletic, Luszczyszyn gushed about the Oilers and have them 18.5% more likely than the second place Winnipeg Jets to win the Stanley Cup.
However, the Oilers «fatal flaw» was identified as goaltending for reason of Stuart Skinner's consistency, and Pickard isn't able to act as a real insurance plan to injury in the playoffs.
»Stuart Skinner is not a bad goalie, but he's certainly a frightening one... The bar for how good Skinner needs to be is not that high, either - and yet it's a bar he often struggles to reach.
When Skinner is bad, he's bad. During those stretches, Skinner is more than capable of single-handedly losing a playoff series...
In Calvin Pickard, there's also no safety net beyond Skinner either. It's him or bust. For the league's best group of skaters, that thought is terrifying.
- Dom Luszczyszyn
When Skinner is bad, he's bad. During those stretches, Skinner is more than capable of single-handedly losing a playoff series...
In Calvin Pickard, there's also no safety net beyond Skinner either. It's him or bust. For the league's best group of skaters, that thought is terrifying.
- Dom Luszczyszyn
The Oilers are an entirely stacked team, all while achieving the bare minimum with their goaltending. Their offence and defence are performing at a top 5 level by most metrics, but their goaltending is stuck nearby non-playoff teams.
Calvin Pickard played well enough to beat the Seattle Kraken last night, and Stuart Skinner was dominant against Buffalo the game before. The real problem for the Oilers lies in Skinner's major struggles against top 10 teams this season - far below league average.
Do they Edmonton Oilers need to upgrade in net through trade?
The Oilers haven't concretely been connected to any goaltenders this season, but there are a number of pending free agents on non-playoff teams who could be available for trade.
Goaltending may be the only position that can single handedly win or lose a playoff series. Heading into a year where it's clear they're Stanley Cup favourites, they need to act like it and address their glaring weakness in net. Even an upgrade on Pickard will help.
| POLL | ||
JANVIER 28 | 287 ANSWERS Top NHL analyst gives Oilers crazy Stanley Cup odds, and warns of biggest weakness Do you think the Oilers need to trade for a goalie? | ||
| Yes | 182 | 63.4 % |
| No | 105 | 36.6 % |
| List of polls | ||
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