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Oilers Stanley Cup chances take major hit following the trade deadline, per analytics


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Liam McCormick
March 8, 2025  (8:11 PM)
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Edmonton Oilers after the West Conference Finals
Photo credit: USA Today Sports

The Edmonton Oilers entered this season as the far and away Stanley Cup favourites by betting odds, but are now seeing a big decline in recent weeks.

Even earlier this season, the Oilers were ranked as the team with the highest Cup chances by far, with chances as high as 18%.

Edmonton Oilers Stanley Cup Odds cratering after trade deadline

The NHL has released new data showing the change of Stanley Cup odds over the season, with the Oilers beginning the year in first and currently finding themselves in third.
The Oilers had a quality trade deadline with moves that will improve their team. Trent Frederic, Max Jones, and Jake Walman are fantastic additions, but other teams loaded up far more.
The Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars now occupy the top two spots for Stanley Cup chances, and they made massive additions at the trade deadline. At the end of the day, they may have surpassed the Oilers in roster strength.
More than that, the Oilers Stanley Cup odds began taking a hit earlier this season from other models when their goaltending results have imploded.
Both Oilers goalies are now below league average save percentage of .900. If they are able to win the Stanley Cup this season, they'll either see a major resurgence from Stuart Skinner - or they'll win despite poor goaltending.
Stuart Skinner has struggled greatly against top 10 teams this season, One of the primary reasons the Oilers may struggle in the playoffs this season.
If the Oilers win the cup this season, at this point, they'll be beating the odds. No longer are they considered favourites - it's time for the Oilers to dial in.
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Oilers Stanley Cup chances take major hit following the trade deadline, per analytics

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