Hockey analyst NHL Sid wrote an incredible breakdown of the Oilers problems with the third line, which he believes could cost the team a Stanley Cup. The last 5 Cup Winners have all had a third line with a goal differential of at least 54%, while this year, the Oilers third line is far below that threshold at a rate of 23%.
The third line of Henrique, Brown, and Janmark have some bad luck skewed against them so far, but their underlying numbers are supplying much confidence. The two wingers on that line last year only combined for a total of 8 goals too. Sid suggests that to best optimize the Oilers lineup, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could slide down to the third line left wing, with Jeff Skinner taking the place on the first line.
Henrique and Janmark have similar play profiles as slower, defensive minded forwards. Both can be solid contributors to the Oilers, but perhaps not on the same line. On the third line, Nuge could provide a boost of speed, chip in some offence against weaker competition, and balance out the Oilers lineup as a whole.
Coach Knoblauch is no stranger to mixing up the lines significantly, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him try Nugent-Hopkins anchoring the bottom-six. We'll have to see in the next few weeks if Knoblauch is dialled into the analytics, and takes the suggestions to break up the third line.
POLL | ||
NOVEMBRE 3 | 156 ANSWERS Oilers Analyst Suggests Demoting Core Player to Third Line to Balance Lineup Do you think the Oilers should move Nugent-Hopkins to the third line? | ||
Yes | 73 | 46.8 % |
No | 72 | 46.2 % |
See Results | 11 | 7.1 % |
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