Analytics Say Oilers Biggest Problem Is Unexpectedly Goaltending

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Liam McCormick
October 13, 2024 (12:23)

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Oilers fans are used to being extremely concerned about the goaltending, and although things may be fine, it's been a major problem through the first two games again.

The Oilers should be confident that things will turn around with their young hometown starter in Stuart Skinner and veteran backup Calvin Pickard. However, diving into the numbers of why the Oilers lost their first two games, goaltending sticks out as the big reason. According to Matthew Panchyshyn on X, the Oilers are leading the NHL for least expected goals against, but their goalies have been haemorrhaging goals - especially on the penalty kill.

Fans should have faith that Skinner should bounce back after he's started 109 games in the last two seasons, but his save percentage did drop by 9 points last season from the year before. Skinner's relatively unproven too with only 124 career games, which brings a level of uncertainty to the Oilers crease. Earlier this year, the Oilers were ranked as the top goalie team in the pacific division.

Then, there's the concern that Oilers fans have had about their longtime goalie coach, Dustin Schwartz. The Oilers coach was booed on opening night as fans have long recognized a trend of goaltenders actually getting worse in their time with Schwartz, and them improving when they leave. Some time ago last season, Skinner actually went outside the organization to hire his own personal goalie coach.

Hopefully Skinner doesn't find himself in a funk that's difficult to get out of, but it has happened as recently as the playoffs last season. Calvin Pickard actually had a better save percentage last season, and he could be leaned on a little more to take some workload off of Skinner this year. And perhaps, the Oilers take these next two crucial years of Skinner's contract to evaluate if he can really be the starter for a cup contending team.