Former Oiler Philip Broberg Set to Come Crashing Down to Earth, Stats Say
Former Oilers Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway returned to Edmonton last night on a high from their early days with the St. Louis Blues, but that may be soon crashing down to earth.
Broberg and Holloway left the Oilers this offseason and joined the Blues on rare offer sheets, and both have set career highs in every stat through the early part of the season.
While both players have had so much success this year, their PDO suggests that their numbers could soon take a dip. PDO is a stat that some say essentially measures luck, and Broberg and Holloway are big beneficiaries of it.
PDO measures on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage, which should equal out to around 1.00. If it's above, it means a player is having a higher on ice shooting percentage and save percentage - or just getting lucky with good shots and saves on a player's shifts.
Broberg's PDO in particular was a 1.405 heading into Saturday's game, and he's leading the St. Louis Blues with a +7 on ice rating.
Eventually, he'll end up seeing a regression to the mean statistically, which means his shots won't find the back of the net and the Blues goalies could let a few bad goals in. That would significantly slow down his offensive production, and make his defensive numbers look a little worse - or perhaps just more realistic.
Through 16 games this season, Broberg has 2 goals and 12 points. He's having a breakout year and playing top pair minutes for the Blues, and it's looking more and more like the Oilers could regret losing out on a star player.
Coming to Edmonton for his return, Broberg did hint towards some problems with player development with the Oilers that led to his departure via offer sheet.
It may not be the best to wish for his results to worsen, but it may make Oilers fans a little more comfortable to know that Broberg is experiencing quite the bender of luck. Eventually, it'll come crashing down with a regression to the mean, but Broberg is still a great player.
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